Stock commission operation
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[Summary of the research report] Last week, all A fell by 0.92%, and the banking sector fell by 41% (CITIC Tier 1), underperforming the market. After the interim report, a total of 12 listed banks held an interim performance meeting. At the same time, we had exchanges with urban and rural commercial banks in the southwest region, as summarized below. There is still downward pressure on interest rate differentials in the second half of the year, but the rate has narrowed compared to the first half. On the asset side: Regulatory guidance has weakened the downward trend in interest rates. LPR has not been adjusted for 4 consecutive months. Interest rates in the financial market have returned to the level at the beginning of the year. The price of new loans has been basically adjusted in place (the downward trend of new loans issued by China National Stock Exchange is between 35-60BP) In the second half of the year, the core conversion of LPR will drive downward pressure on stock loan prices. Liability side: Both large and small banks are strengthening debt cost control. Overall, in the second half of the year, the rigidity of debt costs is difficult to change. Social financing will switch from credit-driven to government bonds, while regional small and medium-sized banks rely on resource endowments to focus on local debt issuance and compete for government-related issues. Deposits may be the focus of deposit price differentiation in the second half of the year. From the perspective of assets and liabilities, downward pressure on interest margins still exists, but considering the expansion of the fiscal deficit, deposit derivation will partially alleviate the pressure on liabilities, and the downward rate of interest margins may narrow. Risk exposure is lagging, and asset quality will continue to be under pressure. On the whole, the asset quality trend in the second half of the year is downward. From the perspective of generation, the high point of retail risk exposure may appear in the 2-3 quarters; due to the deferred debt service policy, the non-performing liquidation lags behind, wholesale, retail, catering Tourism, transportation, and foreign demand-dependent industries still have relatively high risks. The epidemic in the first half of the year caused litigation and on-site due diligence to be affected, and the progress of non-performing disposal was slow. In the second half of the year, due to the need to complete the 4 trillion yuan disposal target of supervision, the overall disposal is expected to accelerate. It is estimated that in the first half of the first half of the year, write-off transfers accounted for 50%-60% of the disposal of large banks, and small and medium-sized banks in the range of 70%-80%. Therefore, the annual disposal target of 4 trillion yuan may not have the worst impact on industry profits. The scenario is so bad as expected. From the perspective of the deferred principal and interest payment policy, due to the large scale of loans, the proportion of deferred principal repayment is relatively small, estimated to be about 3%. However, the customer base of urban and rural commercial banks is sinking and their anti-risk ability is weak. This proportion is about 10%. Investment advice: The economy is recovering moderately, the prosperity of banks is up, and investment opportunities in joint stock banks are worthy of attention. The recent macro data continue to improve, and the PMI margins of the manufacturing and service industries are improving. The economic recovery in the next three quarters has a high degree of certainty. Under the recovery environment, the fundamentals of stock banks are expected to continue to improve. Before the interim report, city commercial banks with better asset quality enjoy a certainty premium, and their valuations are already at a relatively high level. As the recovery trend is further confirmed, the stock banks have a risk appetite Higher, poor inventory is expected to be cleared out in this down cycle, and performance flexibility will gradually appear. We are optimistic about China Everbright Bank (601818) (60181SH/0681HK), a leading wealth management transformation company with stable operations, backed by China Everbright Group; and the negative structure adjustment effect of the bank’s capital, which is expected to break through with the commercial bank + investment bank model in the future. The current low valuation implies high The option value of Industrial Bank (601166) (60116SH).
At 20:30 on March 26, Beijing time, the United States announced the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21. The data recorded 3.23 million, far exceeding expectations. The previous value was revised up from 210,000 to 220,000. It is worth noting that the highest record of initial claims was 650,000 in 1982, and today's initial unemployment claims have reached 5 times the record high!
Beginning on October 26, the new rules on convertible bonds issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges will be implemented. This is a major signal for the regulators to strengthen investor education and hope to curb blind speculation. It does not rule out that funds are rushing to the new rules. Realize the possibility of increasing shipments before landing.
This week, the risk window period between the first phase of the agreement and the signing will end. The current reserved positions for the annual report & quarterly report’s profit-driven market are more cost-effective. In the short-term configuration, it is recommended to continue to explore new electrical/mechanical equipment (such as Industrial control, industrial robots, etc.).
The Founder Securities strategy team believes that the short-term market trend will be suppressed by the downward risk appetite, and will preseStock commission operationnt a pattern of interval fluctuations with a top and a bottom. However, the macroeconomic trend is positive, with active policies and abundant liquidity, which will provide important support to the market.
In response, First Venture responded to the Securities Times reporter that the company did not have any information that should be disclosed but not disclosed. Beijing Capital Securities announced that, as of now, the company has no overall merger plan with any securities company, and some media published news about the merger of Beijing Capital Securities and a securities firm are false reports.